过去两年，全球光伏产业在能源结构转型的大背景下乘风而起，产业规模和装机增速屡创新高。TrendForce集邦咨询预计，2024年全球光伏新增装机量的中性预期为474GW，同比增长16%，与2023年59%的增速相比，增幅明显大幅放缓。Over the past two years, the photovoltaic industry has experienced tremendous growth, mainly due to the transformation in the energy sector. This growth has led to an increase in industry scale and installed capacity to unprecedented levels. According to TrendForce, the global new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to reach 474GW in 2024, which represents a 16% year-on-year increase. It is worth noting that this growth rate is significantly slower than the 59% growth rate observed in 2023.欧盟：供应过剩需求增长放缓
EU: Excess supply and slowing demand growth
12月底，SolarPower Europe发布2023-2027年市场展望：欧盟2023年太阳能装机容量将达到创纪录的56GW，远高于2022年新增的40GW。今年是欧洲太阳能市场连续第三年增长至少40%。预计到2024 年，欧盟光伏装机增速将放缓至11%，欧盟新增装机容量预计将达到62GW。在经历了连续三年40%以上的增速后（主要是由于能源危机的影响），未来欧盟新增光伏装机量将告别高增速，因为随着装机量的增长，需要进一步对电网及储能进行新的投资，投资的进度会制约光伏市场的增长。
SolarPower Europe has recently released its market outlook for 2023-2027. According to the report, the EU's solar installed capacity is expected to reach a new record high of 56GW in 2023, significantly greater than the 40GW added in 2022. This marks the third consecutive year the European solar market has grown by at least 40%. The growth rate in photovoltaic installed capacity in the EU is anticipated to slow down to 11% by 2024, and the new installed capacity is expected to reach 62 GW.After experiencing a growth rate of more than 40% for three consecutive years (mainly due to the impact of the energy crisis), the high growth rate in the new photovoltaic installed capacity in the EU will come to an end in the future. Because with the growth of installed capacity, further new investments in power grids and energy storage are needed, the progress of investment will restrict the growth of the photovoltaic market.SolarPower Europe首席执行官Walburga Hemetsberger表示，太阳能已经为陷入危机的欧洲提供了帮助，现在欧洲必须为太阳能提供帮助，因为它尚未实现2030年所需的平均每年70GW的部署量。
该报告预测，欧洲2025年新增光伏装机将在2024年61.6GW的基础上继续增长19%，实现73.8GW，随后预计2026年装机容量将实现84.2GW，2027年将实现93.1 GW。协会同时警告，若关税征收加大幅度以及贸易壁垒进一步提升，需求增长或出现更大放缓甚至萎缩。供应方面，2024年，欧洲组件库存上升及需求放缓，或使得供应进一步过剩。
Walburga Hemetsberger, the CEO of SolarPower Europe, has emphasized that solar energy has already played a crucial role in helping Europe during the crisis, and now it's time for Europe to reciprocate by supporting solar energy deployment. According to the report, Europe needs to achieve an average annual deployment of 70GW by 2030, which is yet to be achieved.The report also predicts that Europe's new photovoltaic installed capacity will continue to grow, with an expected increase of 19% from 61.6 GW in 2024 to 73.8 GW in 2025. By 2026, the installed capacity is expected to reach 84.2GW, and 93.1GW by 2027.However, the association has warned that if tariffs are imposed and trade barriers are further raised, the demand for solar energy may slow down or even shrink further. On the supply side, there could be an oversupply in 2024 due to rising component inventories and slowing demand in Europe.
2023年，德国是欧盟第一大光伏市场，实现新增装机14.1GW，装机量创历史新高。德国是欧盟各国的领头羊，德国光伏的机遇和挑战，很能反映整个欧洲的情况。众所周知，由于能源危机等的影响，2023年整个欧洲户用分布式光伏市场猛增。今年下半年以来，欧洲户用光伏进入瓶颈期，经销商库存高企。
对此，德国政府已在2023年制定政策，促进大型地面电站和工商业分布式的扩张。这些政策有望在2024年全面落地。
In 2023, Germany is the largest photovoltaic market in the EU, with 14.1GW of new installed capacity, and the installed capacity hits a record high. Germany is the leader among EU countries, and the opportunities and challenges of photovoltaics in Germany can well reflect the situation in Europe as a whole. As we all know, due to the impact of the energy crisis and other impacts, the entire European household distributed photovoltaic market surged in 2023. Since the second half of this year, European household photovoltaics have entered a bottleneck period, and dealer inventories are high.
In this regard, the German government has formulated policies in 2023 to promote the expansion of large-scale ground power stations and industrial and commercial distribution. These policies are expected to be fully implemented in 2024.美国：需求增长放缓至10%
United States: Demand growth slows to 10%
美国能源情报署 (Energy Information Administration)预计，到2024年，可再生能源部署将增长17%，达到42GW，到2030年，新的公用事业规模太阳能、风能和储能的累计部署将达到850GW。德克萨斯州成为美国新增光伏装机量最大的州，占比超过1/5，由于电网基础设施的建设速度仍无法跟上用电量的增长，未来美国仍面临较大的用电缺口。故在高用电需求预期下，美国对光伏装机存在刚性需求。集邦咨询预计，24年美国光伏市场整体仍将保持较高增速，新增装机有望达55 GW，同比增幅达45%。此外，24年6月结束的东南亚关税豁免期将对美国组件供应作有效支撑，叠加ITC额外补贴申领资格及流程逐步简化清晰，有望带动美国24年光伏装机实现高增。The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects renewable energy deployment will grow 17% to 42GW by 2024, with the cumulative deployment of new utility-scale solar, wind and storage reaching 850GW by 2030.
Texas has become the state with the largest newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the United States, accounting for more than 1/5.Since the construction speed of power grid infrastructure still cannot keep up with the growth of electricity consumption, the United States will still face a large power shortage in the future. Therefore, under the expectation of high electricity demand, the United States has a rigid demand for photovoltaic installed capacity. TrendForce predicts that the overall U.S. photovoltaic market will maintain a high growth rate in 2024, with newly installed capacity expected to reach 55 GW, a year-on-year increase of 45%. In addition, the tariff exemption period in Southeast Asia that ends in June 2024 will effectively support the supply of U.S. modules. The qualifications and procedures for applying for additional ITC subsidies will be gradually simplified and clarified, which is expected to drive the U.S. to achieve high growth in photovoltaic installed capacity in 2024.
印度：2024光伏装机或重回增长
India: Photovoltaic installed capacity may return to growth in 2024
一方面，印度能源结构中煤炭占比非常高，脱碳任务相当沉重；另一方面，印度在光伏、风电方面都拥有丰富的资源。这两大因素，给该国的新能源市场创造了巨大的发展空间。
印度正因煤电占比非但过高，为了满足迅速增长的电力需求，该国在2024年还将新增煤电。因此，印度的碳达峰目标比中国要晚十年以上，预计到2040-2041年才会达到峰值，实现碳中和的目标是2070年。印度的可再生能源发展目标是，到2030年实现超过500GW的可再生能源装机总量。
据研究公司Mercom India称，由于项目执行延迟，印度2023年1月至9月期间仅实现新增光伏装机规模5.6GW，与2022年前三个季度的10.5GW相比，下降了近47%。
On the one hand, coal accounts for a very high proportion of India's energy structure, and the decarbonization task is quite heavy; on the other hand, India has abundant resources in photovoltaics and wind power. These two factors have created huge room for development in the local new energy market.Not only is the proportion of coal-fired power in India too high, but to meet the rapidly growing demand for electricity, the country will also add new coal-fired power in 2024. Therefore, India's carbon peak target is more than ten years later than China's. It is not expected to reach its peak until 2040-2041, and the goal of achieving carbon neutrality is 2070. India's renewable energy development goal is to achieve a total installed renewable energy capacity of more than 500 GW by 2030.According to research firm Mercom India, due to delays in project execution, India only achieved 5.6GW of new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to September 2023, a decrease of nearly 47% compared with 10.5GW in the first three quarters of 2022.Mercom Capital Group首席执行官Raj Prabhu 表示：“我们将应对 2024 年第一季度的预期保持充分乐观。”看上去很猛，是因为印度光伏装机在2023年下滑很严重。2022年，印度实现了13.2GW的光伏装机。如果2024年能实现16GW的话，那么印度花了整整两年时间，才增长21%。目前，印度人均光伏装量不足100W，印度光伏市场潜力大，但政府或在未来更强调使用国产太阳能电池及组件。"We remain fully optimistic about our outlook for the first quarter of 2024," Mercom Capital Group CEO Raj Prabhu said.It looks fierce because India’s photovoltaic installed capacity had declined severely in 2023. In 2022, India achieved 13.2 GW of photovoltaic installed capacity. If 16GW can be achieved in 2024, it will take India two full years to grow by 21%.At present, the per capita photovoltaic installation in India is less than 100W. The Indian photovoltaic market has great potential, but the government may place more emphasis on the use of domestically produced solar cells and components in the future.
集邦咨询预计，24年欧洲新增装机将达90GW，有望长期保持稳步增长。美洲整体新增装机有望达 87 GW，同比增长33%，主要增量仍为美国。中东非市场方面，24年新增装机将达 28 GW。TrendForce predicts that new installed capacity in Europe will reach 90GW in 2024, and is expected to maintain steady growth in the long term. The overall new installed capacity in the Americas is expected to reach 87 GW, a year-on-year increase of 33%. The main increase is still in the United States. In the Middle East and Africa market, new installed capacity will reach 28 GW in 2024.
总的来看，全球光伏新增装机在24年增速有所放缓，回归理性增长。当前，电网容量不足和风光消纳问题已成为制约各国光伏需求保持高增的一大关键点，需待电网完成阶段性升级或储能装机放量后，全球光伏装机潜力才能进一步释放。此外，部分地区正面临经济下行，财政支出受限，或将影响补贴政策的执行力度，进而抑制当地装机需求的释放。
Generally speaking, the growth rate of global photovoltaic installed capacity has slowed down in 2024 and returned to rational growth. At present, insufficient power grid capacity and wind and solar accommodation issues have become key factors restricting the high growth of photovoltaic demand in various countries. The global photovoltaic installed capacity potential can only be further released after the power grid completes phased upgrades or energy storage installations are increased. In addition, some regions are facing an economic downturn and limited fiscal expenditures, which may affect the implementation of subsidy policies, thereby inhibiting the release of local installed capacity demand.
